Why the Smartest People Doubt Themselves: The Dunning-Kruger Effect

Have you ever met someone who’s absolutely convinced they’re an expert at something—say, cooking, driving, or even quantum physics—only to watch them spectacularly mess it up? Or maybe you’ve been that person yourself, confidently diving into a task only to realise halfway through that you’re in way over your head. If this sounds familiar, you’ve encountered the Dunning-Kruger Effect, a cognitive bias that explains why the least skilled among us often overestimate their abilities, while the truly competent tend to doubt themselves.

What Is the Dunning-Kruger Effect?

In 1999, psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger published a groundbreaking study showing that:

Low-skilled individuals often overestimate their abilities (they don’t know enough to recognise their mistakes).
Highly skilled individuals tend to underestimate themselves (they assume others know just as much).

Their research revealed that people with less competence in a particular area are often blissfully unaware of their incompetence. Meanwhile, because they know how much they don’t know, true experts tend to be more humble (and sometimes self-doubting).

In short: The less you know, the more confident you sound. The more you know, the more you doubt. This creates a paradoxical curve.

Imagine two colleagues:

Alex just learned the basics of Excel and declares, "I’m a data analyst now!"
Sam, an actual data analyst, says, "I still have so much to learn—I’m not even that good."

Alex is peaking on Mount Stupid (the Dunning-Kruger confidence spike), while Sam is stuck in the Valley of Despair (where true experts live).

Why Does This Matter?

The Dunning-Kruger Effect doesn’t just affect individuals—it shapes how we interact, learn, and grow. Misjudging our abilities can lead to poor decisions, missed opportunities, or even conflict. Meanwhile, the self-doubt of experts can hold them back from sharing their valuable insights. So, how do we navigate this cognitive trap?

Tips to Counter the Dunning-Kruger Effect

The good news? Awareness is half the battle. By recognising the Dunning-Kruger Effect, you can take steps to keep your confidence in check and foster genuine growth. Here are some practical tips to counter this bias:

Embrace Humility and Stay Curious
Assume there’s always more to learn, no matter how confident you feel. Ask questions, seek out new perspectives, and treat every experience as a chance to grow. For example, if you’re tackling a new hobby like photography, don’t assume you’ll master it after one YouTube tutorial. Sign up for a class or ask a pro for feedback.
Seek Honest Feedback
Surround yourself with people who’ll give it to you straight, not just cheerleaders who boost your ego. Constructive criticism helps you spot blind spots. If you’re working on a project, ask a mentor or colleague, “What could I improve?” and listen without getting defensive.
Reflect on Past Overconfidence
Think about a time you thought you had something figured out but didn’t. Maybe you bombed a presentation because you didn’t prepare enough, or you tried fixing your car and made it worse. Use those moments as reminders to double-check your skills before diving in.
Learn to Recognise Expertise in Others
If you’re surrounded by people who know more than you, don’t assume they’re “not that impressive.” Instead, lean into their knowledge. Ask them how they approach problems or what resources they recommend. This not only helps you learn but also calibrates your sense of your abilities.
Practice Self-Awareness
Regularly check in with yourself: Are you overconfident in an area where you lack experience? Or are you downplaying your skills because you’re hyper-aware of what you don’t know? Journaling or talking through your goals with a trusted friend can help you find balance.
Invest in Learning
The more you know, the better you’ll understand your limitations. Take courses, read books, or practice deliberately in areas you want to improve. Knowledge reduces the gap between your perceived and actual abilities.

The Silver Lining of Self-Doubt

Here’s a comforting thought: if you’re doubting yourself, you’re probably further along than you think. The Dunning-Kruger Effect shows that self-doubt often comes with expertise, because you’re aware of the nuances others miss. So, the next time you’re hesitating to speak up or take on a challenge, remind yourself that your doubt might be a sign of competence, not weakness.

At the same time, don’t let overconfidence stop you from trying new things. The key is balance: approach challenges with enough confidence to start, but enough humility to learn along the way.

And if you feel like an impostor—or encounter someone who won’t stop mansplaining—remember: it’s not just you. It’s psychology.

As usual, if you need a little help, we're one call away.

Xin Yi Ng (Michelle)

Research & Development Lead

The Open Mind Institute